Hi Nathan, regarding shorting volatility: Currently VIX is 8.5% in backwardation. Is this, in your opinion, enough to enter a short position either bei going long XIV or SVXY? Many thanks, best, Daniel
From a historical point of view, whenever you get a drawdown of 50-80% in XIV or SXVY it has been a good time to initiate a long position. However, if we begin to enter negative economic territory you can expect these funds to fall an additional 50% from here. Everything, right now, with these funds is hinging on continued economic growth not only in the U.S. but globally that would affect the profitability of U.S. companies. Earnings season starts this week and will provide some additional clarifications on guidance.
Hi Nathan, regarding shorting volatility: Currently VIX is 8.5% in backwardation. Is this, in your opinion, enough to enter a short position either bei going long XIV or SVXY? Many thanks, best, Daniel
ReplyDeleteHi Daniel,
DeleteFrom a historical point of view, whenever you get a drawdown of 50-80% in XIV or SXVY it has been a good time to initiate a long position. However, if we begin to enter negative economic territory you can expect these funds to fall an additional 50% from here. Everything, right now, with these funds is hinging on continued economic growth not only in the U.S. but globally that would affect the profitability of U.S. companies. Earnings season starts this week and will provide some additional clarifications on guidance.